Why the majority is always wrong

The proper heading should be “ Why the majority always wrong when it comes to investing” but admit it ,this headline is more striking than what it should be.

I have been in investment business for so long that , I can say there are few things I haven’t seen. I have seen old school Stock Exchanges where each stock is traded at a blackboard and , every broker is writing the demand or erasing orders on the blackboard to execute an order.

I have been in the professional side of the market as well. I have seen Bank managers, investment company managers executing their orders through a little unknown brokers, or front running their biggest clients or even worse front running their own institutions’ orders.( Front Running is , when you know someone is gonna buy something at a price, because it is either your client or the company you work for who is gonna buy, you buy that share/bond etc before that order is executed, then when that order is on execution/ the price is effected upwards you sell your own position.)

I have seen people , hanging themselves on a lemon tree or in a hotel room. Those things have always been bear dip sign for me, by the way. Remember the guy who tried to kill himself in front of OKEX. Those are the moments when it seems the sky is falling and there is no tomorrow, a lot of weak hands give up while some of their positions, some give up their lives.

I have seen maybe thousands of Twitter CryptoXXX account who claim to give trade advises. You can find thousands of accounts like that, check their accounts, they are always right, you will rarely find tweets that says “oh shit I was wrong” . They have thousands of followers. They claim to beat the market all the time and still they are still too humble to share their trading secrets with their followers.(Honestly , I also personally post some trade ideas on my account as well by the way , but thats for communicating with my friends Mustafa, Ege, Pinar, as their wish. So don’t use that against me)

I guess there was a news on ICO Drops today , about these kinds of known Crypto accounts plotting a big market manipulation on Haven. One thing I always fascinates is me that, some of these guys have followers more than George Soros actually have. Who is confirmed, by any means, outperformer of the market constantly. Notice that he is not sharing any of his trading secrets .

Why is that?

How these guys always exist? Why do they have so many followers? While a simple reasoning could easily done, one could easily conclude that no real successful trader needs any follower but why there is this market for that and why this idea is still a selling product? It is obvious that a real successful trader/ investor doesn’t need any of those followers.

Why this is happening over and over again? Like it did before and will happen in the future as well?

People , when it comes to important decisions, have a tendency to observe what others do and do accordingly. It may be wise to do so on some cases but when it comes to investing , it is not.

Let me tell you why!

Success in investing is a performance game.

If you invest in any market, real estate, stocks, bonds or crypto there is an average investment return for these assets each year. For example if you invest in a altcoin in the top 100, your average return will be very close to the average return of any other currency in the top 100. That would be very normal and your results will be “normal results of investing in altcoins”.

There are ways to get better results though. Investing in smaller cap , promising projects. The idea is that you will be noticing this small cap coin before no one else does, so you buy it before everybody recognizes and the coin gets in to top 100 after that. This will get you a much better return than investing in a pretty known coin for sure. Because , you will have two market price movements. 1- Is the regular Crypto market going up 2- The price movement that gives you the extra boost on ROI, because your coin is also climbing the ladder in the overall market cap because it is a promising coin.

There is also one other way to make money.

Is to find a cheap coin before anyone notices it, buy it, and then make the coin known, if you have the power to do so. So basically, it is the almost similar to previous process but you have the power to shorten the time that passes for the time coin needs to be known.The process of recognition is not natural, you do it by yourself.

Even if, you have bad intentions and the power, then you might just buy not a promising coin but any coin and promote ( shill) it.

If we say “shilled coin” is what others are after , then we can easily say ,it is better not to follow the crowd.

It is highly probable that, that shilled coin will underperform the market. Think like, the best way to make money as this; as a metaphor , you are at the bottom of a pool and you are in a boat. What you will get you up , is the water. ( in this case that water is the fresh money of the new buyers, people who start noticing your coin and pouring money into it) That will bring you up. At the moment you buy a shilled coin, you are in a boat , floating in a full pool, there is no way there is new money coming in. There is no more room to go. The discount you normally should get by buying a small unnoticed cap coin, is already gone. You are exposed to only the natural upward of the market, nothing extra. Because everybody has already bought that discount. As you see, lots of people, the whole crowd who bought with you after the shill is sitting in the same boat waiting for the “moon”

We, you , me , the shillers, we are here for the money. Even the tech guys are here for the money. Anyone who says who is in the market for the tech is lying.

So , what I want to say basically is , if you want extraordinary returns, you should never never get into something that is already shilled, popular by the majority.

If you want superior results, you should undo what normal people do because What you want is unnormal results , extraordinary results.

This doesn’t mean you should go out and buy the first shitcoin you encounter, by the way. No! Make your own approach , make it your own way, yes I am sorry, you are alone here. You have to use your mind and decide for yourself. Do your own research. Be a man, decide on the best coin, and stick to it. Maybe later on I will write about my criteria of choosing the best coins.

Remember finding the best coin and sticking to it. That’s the game if you want to quit your daily job!

Don’t forget Jesse Livermore said; “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon”.

If you want uncommon results, don’t do the common thing

In that perspective, I am holding to Fusion , right now.

I do believe these guys are doing so big that they have no idea how they are gonna impact the Finance world.

It is not shilled.

Conversely, all of the shillers do not shill it. I remember a millionaire babbling about Fusion “ yeah it is good but I couldn’t get it, I was on vacation etc..”

It is almost trading around ICO X2. Has a huge potential because of the impact it is going to have on cryptofinance.

I got my bags on Fusion.

By the way, I have just shilled Fusion. Take that into account as well ! :)

“Money is made by sitting” -Jesse Livermore

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