The East vs. West Snow Divide Will Continue

Residents in typically snowy areas of the East Coast are coming out of the final days of January with major snowfall deficits, and the forecast for hopeful ski bums isn’t looking good.

In New York City, the record for the latest first measurable snowfall has been broken as of February 1, when the previous record for the latest first measurable snow was the 0.1 inches that fell on January 29, 1973. Measurable snow is at least 0.1 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service, and 0.4 inches fell this past Wednesday. That is the total recorded snowfall for the entire season thus far.

NYC has company in the snow drought department. Philadelphia was snowless until Wednesday as well — the same system brought 0.3 inches to the city of brotherly love. Philadelphia’s record for latest first measurable snowfall is February 3, 1995, so that record still stands. In Washington D.C., where 0.4 inches of snow fell on Wednesday, the date for the latest recorded first snowfall is February 23, 1973.

Despite February statistically being the snowiest month in New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C., computer models will bring little hope to ski bums wishing for a chance to hit the eastern slopes.

Over the first two weeks of February, two of the major models used for weather forecasdting, the GFS and the ECMWF, both bring little to no snow to the I-95 Corridor, from NYC to Philly to D.C and even as far north as Boston.

While a pattern shift to major snowfall does not look likely right now, there will be a seismic shift in temperatures up and down the East Coast through the first two weeks of February. High temperatures could struggle to make it to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, even during the daytime, by the weekend in places like Boston, NYC, and Philly. Nighttime lows will likely be in the single digits — and it all comes with no snow.

The cold temperatures are short lived, however, with the same models indicating the second week of February will bring 50 degree temps to Philly and NYC, with near 60 degree temperatures through the nation’s capital.

Anyone hoping to ski, snowboard, or even just make a quick snowman will have to head north and west.

If you want the cold with the snow included, you’ll have to head even more west — as in, the Intermountain West.

Unlike some eastern counterparts, many western slopes are enjoying a winter with an overabundance of snow. Winter Park, Colorado, a popular mountain resort town roughly 65 miles west of Denver, recorded 46.6 inches of snow as of January 31. Keep in mind, the average snowfall for the entire month of January is only 33.6 inches, and with January over, it looks as if the popular skiers paradise has ended January 2023 snowier-than-average.

Similar statistics are in play for places like Crested Butte, where there also seems to be no shortage of snow so far this season. The mountain town has picked up 66.7 inches of snow in January, while the normal for January is 42.2 inches.

Heading into the major cities, Denver also ended January above-average, although not nearly on the scale of the mountains just to the west. The average snowfall for January out of Denver-Central Park is 6.4 inches, but the city ended up seeing 10.7 inches.

Salt Lake City, Utah also came in close to average; 10.1 inches was the total for the month, with the average at 12.7 inches. That being said, Salt Lake City also recorded a whopping 22.6 inches of snow in December 2022 alone, and with the December average normally at 12.1 inches, the city can afford to fall a tad behind in snow totals for January.

There does seem to be a pending break from the snow and frigid temperatures. In some of the mountainous areas of Colorado and Utah, temperatures will warm through the first few days of February — only to cool again by the first weekend of the month, with more snow in the picture.

That being said, it is important to note not every typically snowy area has been so lucky. Despite popular ski areas of western Colorado at nearly 150% of typical snowpack, mountainous regions in the southern and eastern parts of the state are only at 50–70% of the typical snowpack, with limited snow in sight. This localized snow drought extends into the mountains of New Mexico as well.

For much of the West, temperatures will briefly warm through the first few days of February, though they will barely hover above freezing. In fact, by the weekend temperatures will have peaked for the week in places like Park City, Utah; in Aspen, they will fall by the beginning of the next work week. Some global weather models have snow arriving in the Cascades by the end of the day on Friday, charging inland to the Northern Rockies by Sunday night. The same wave of atmospheric energy would bring snow to the Colorado Rockies by Monday — happy skiing!

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